On May 11, Li Zhongshuang, general manager of Shanghai Ruikun Metal Materials Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the reporter of “China Metallurgy News” that the market prices of cold and hot-rolled coils are expected to run weakly in the short term.
Li Zhongshuang introduced that in the first week of May, the prices of cold and hot-rolled coils in the Shanghai market continued the decline in April. Among them, the price of hot-rolled coil (Q235B) fell by 120 yuan/ton, and the price of cold-rolled coil dropped by 40 yuan/ton. Except for the Shanghai market, the prices of cold and hot-rolled coils in other domestic mainstream markets are basically in a downward range. On the whole, the market transactions are average, and the prices of cold and hot-rolled coils show a trend of “open drop + dark drop”.
At the same time, Li Zhongshuang reminded market participants to focus on the following uncertain factors affecting the market: there is uncertainty in the release effect of downstream demand. Li Zhongshuang said that at present, the international environment is still complicated and severe, there are uncertainties in the growth of external demand, the domestic market demand is insufficient to release the power, the price of industrial products is still falling, the efficiency of enterprises is facing the test, and some structural problems are more prominent. Especially for cold and hot.
The production and sales situation of manufacturers such as automobiles and home appliances with large demand for rolled coils is not optimistic. Second, there is uncertainty about whether the supply pressure can be alleviated. Recently, steel prices have continued to fall, and the profits of steel companies have shrunk significantly, and even suffered losses. Statistics from the China Iron and Steel Industry Association show that in the first quarter of this year, the total profits of key statistical steel companies fell by more than 70% year-on-year. At present, the degree of loss of rebar is significantly higher than that of hot coils, and steel enterprises tend to tilt their production resources to products such as hot coils and medium and heavy plates. This can also be seen from the year-on-year increase in social inventory of hot-rolled coils at the end of April.
During the period, the supply pressure in the cold and hot-rolled coil market still exists. Second, there are uncertainties in the driving force of cost support. Recently, the prices of iron and steel raw materials such as iron ore, coke, and steel scrap have fluctuated. As of the end of April, the ex-factory price of ordinary carbon square bad in Tangshan, Hebei, the price of scrap steel in Jiangsu, the price of secondary coke in Shanxi, and the price of fine ore in Australia have all dropped by at least 100 yuan/ton month-on-month. The price of raw steel and fuel has continued to fall, and the steel cost platform is facing the risk of collapse. Li Zhongshuang predicts that the center of gravity of steel costs may continue to move downward in the later period, which is not conducive to supporting the rise in market prices of cold and hot-rolled coils.
Post time: May-22-2023